RTT: The Highest Risk Organisations: January 2015
Firstly, Happy New Year! It hasn’t been so happy for the NHS or their political paymasters. With A&E waiting times and general malaise hitting the news, you might think elective waiting times are the last thing to be concerned about now. We disagree.
In July 2013 we published an article called “Avoiding the Domino Effect”. In it we pointed out how services are interrelated and that a failure in dealing with A&E demand, leads to increased beds being blocked which ultimately leads to elective operations being cancelled.
Whilst it is too early to say the impact on elective waiting lists – it is likely that we will begin to see it next month and subsequent months there is no doubt that the position of the waiting lists prior to this “crisis” leads us to the conclusion that things are going to get a lot worse.
Our clients are cancelling elective operations at rates we have not seen before due to A&E pressures – something that will undoubtedly come back to bite them in the next few months.
Whilst this is obviously terrible news for patients it is also interesting politically. Our calculations indicate that by March the waiting list will have deteriorated significantly – perfect timing for a May election headline.
This months figures show a huge deterioration for one Trust in particular – Imperial College Hospitals in London. They now have 12,116 patients still waiting over 18 weeks. To put that into perspective – their nearest rival (United Lincolnshire Hospitals) have 5673 patients waiting over 18 weeks. So Imperial have more than double the number of anyone else. We are aware that they upgraded their IT system in the summer however the position appears to be worsening month on month with no obvious sign of a plan to stem the flow.
There are now 16 Trusts failing all three of the national standards:
- BRIGHTON AND SUSSEX UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS TRUST
- CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
- COLCHESTER HOSPITAL UNIVERSITY NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
- DERBY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
- HULL AND EAST YORKSHIRE HOSPITALS NHS TRUST
- IMPERIAL COLLEGE HEALTHCARE NHS TRUST
- NORFOLK AND NORWICH UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
- NORTH BRISTOL NHS TRUST
- NORTH CUMBRIA UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS NHS TRUST
- PLYMOUTH HOSPITALS NHS TRUST
- SHEFFIELD CHILDREN’S NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
- TAUNTON AND SOMERSET NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
- UNITED LINCOLNSHIRE HOSPITALS NHS TRUST
- UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS BRISTOL NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
- WEST HERTFORDSHIRE HOSPITALS NHS TRUST
- WESTERN SUSSEX HOSPITALS NHS FOUNDATION TRUST
Add to that the fact that an increasing number of Trusts are failing to report at all and we ourselves a very gloomy outlook.
As usual our Trust rankings are compiled through statistical analysis of past and current performance to give organisations a risk-adjusted ranking and whether their performance is getting worse or better.
Again, we have looked at organisations in three ways:
- The Shelford Group: the self-styled “leading group of hospitals” in the NHS;
- Foundation Trusts: hospitals that have earned the right to more freedom from government policy;
- Non-Foundation Trusts: all the rest of the hospitals.
Why not have a look and see where your local Trust comes in our league table. You can download the list for free HERE